Research on strategic competition, economic statecraft and small-state strategy.
How developments in the international system reach domestic public goods.
Small states are particularly valuable comparative cases because they reveal how limited capacity, external dependence and geopolitical pressure interact.
A large state can absorb a badly priced agreement inside a large balance sheet. A small one cannot, and the consequences show up in the fiscal accounts within a few years — which makes the mechanism observable rather than inferred.
Five observatories tracking strategic alignment, external finance, security partnership and the domestic capacity to convert engagement into public value.
China — domestic capacity and external influence
Archive
Tracks how economic transition, technology, demography and state capacity shape China’s regional and global strategy.
Barometer snapshot
Material strength, institutional strain
Economy
Technology
Demography
Civic space
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardJapan — strategic normalization and regional public goods
Archive
Follows Japan’s changing security posture, economic statecraft, demographic constraints and role in Asian institution-building.
Barometer snapshot
Resilience through strategic normalization
Institutions
Security
Economy
Demography
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardIndia — strategic autonomy, development and regional order
Pilot
Connects India’s great-power trajectory with jobs, public capacity, federal delivery and its role across South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
India pilot reading
Observed capacity / assessed judgment
Growth
Employment conversion
Public goods
Shock resilience
Observed data and editorial assessment are reported separately.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardRepublic of Korea — technology, security and demographic resilience
Archive
Tracks the interaction of alliance strategy, industrial concentration, innovation, demographic pressure and inter-Korean risk.
Barometer snapshot
High capacity, concentrated exposure
Technology
Trade
Security
Demography
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardIndonesia — scale, ASEAN leadership and public-value conversion
Archive
Examines how Indonesia converts demographic and resource scale into institutional influence, resilient growth and regional leadership.
Barometer snapshot
Scale seeking institutional leverage
Growth
ASEAN role
Climate
Governance
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardAustralia — alliance strategy, Pacific engagement and resilience
Archive
Tracks Australia’s alliance integration, Pacific role, climate exposure, economic security and capacity to deliver regional commitments.
Barometer snapshot
Alliance integration and regional reach
Institutions
Security
Pacific role
Climate
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardSouth Sudan — conflict, climate, displacement and state formation
Archive
Connects political settlement, humanitarian conditions, oil dependence, flooding, food insecurity and local institutional capacity.
Barometer snapshot
Fragility across every buffer
Conflict
Food
Climate
Institutions
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardUnited States — systemic power and domestic capacity
Archive
Reads American global strategy alongside institutional cohesion, industrial policy, fiscal capacity and the domestic foundations of external commitments.
Barometer snapshot
Systemic power, domestic fragmentation
Power
Innovation
Institutions
Cohesion
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardUnited Kingdom — post-Brexit strategy and public capacity
Archive
Tracks the UK’s effort to align global ambition, European security, trade strategy and constrained domestic public capacity.
Barometer snapshot
Post-Brexit strategic recalibration
Institutions
Security
Economy
Public capacity
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardNorway — high-trust governance, energy and preventive statecraft
Archive
Examines how Norway combines sovereign wealth, energy power, social trust, climate responsibility and peace and development engagement.
Barometer snapshot
High-trust strategic resilience
Institutions
Public goods
Climate
Security
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardRegional — Asia-Pacific: Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, South Asia, Pacific Islands
Archive
Reads the region between the headlines, synthesizing foreign policy developments, geopolitical shifts and new scholarship into signals, gaps and stories worth pursuing.
Barometer snapshot
Competitive interdependence
Integration
Trade
Resilience
Civic space
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 16, 2026
View dashboardNational — Canada, external position
Pilot
Examines Canada's trade, security, development finance and economic-security commitments against the domestic capacity available to deliver them.
Barometer snapshot
Diversification under pressure
Agency
Trade
Defence
Delivery
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
National — Nepal: strategic position, federal delivery and public value
Pilot
Tracks Nepal's foreign relationships alongside federal delivery, jobs, migration, public services, democracy and climate risk.
Barometer snapshot
External leverage, weak conversion
Connectivity
Federal delivery
Jobs
Climate
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboardNational — Myanmar: political order, civil war, human security
Pilot
Tracks territorial control, resistance governance, civilian protection, economic fragmentation, regional diplomacy and climate risk.
Barometer snapshot
Contested authority
Protection
Governance
Access
Resilience
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
National — Somalia: fragility, climate, conflict, political economy
Archive
Tracks security, climate, hunger, federal politics and external dependence in Somalia.
Barometer snapshot
Compounding systems risk
Food
Climate
Access
Capacity
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 18, 2026
View dashboardGlobal — conflict, climate, fragility and anticipatory action
Pilot
A source-rich intelligence dashboard connecting conflict, climate, food, water, displacement, health, governance and institutional capacity.
Barometer snapshot
Conflict, climate and fragility convergence
Conflict
Climate
Food
Institutions
Directional reading; open the dashboard for sources and method.
Reviewed August 19, 2026
View dashboard
Policy BriefA policy brief on how regional and external actors can help create the conditions for a negotiated settlement in Myanmar. Its central argument is that the conflict is not yet 'ripe' for negotiation — the actors who would have to sign do not yet see a reason to. The immediate task is therefore not to table a peace plan but to shape the humanitarian, economic, diplomatic, and institutional conditions under which negotiation becomes the rational choice, while preparing the settlement architecture as the destination rather than the opening move.
Policy BriefMajor platforms have spent more on trust and safety than at any point in their history, yet the harms that spending was meant to contain keep multiplying. This brief argues the problem is timing, not effort: platform governance is optimised for detection and response, not anticipation. It applies the Prevention Architecture to four domains, sketches four futures for platform governance to 2035, and sets out what a shift from reactive moderation to preventive governance would require.