The Prevention Lab observes public goods and preventive governance — studying the interval between credible warning and legitimate, financed action, and where closing it would change the outcome.
The interval between a credible warning and financed action is where prevention is won or lost.
Each observatory reports an observed reading beside a separate editorial judgment — with direction, sources and dates. Select one.
India
Whether rising geopolitical option value converts into inclusive domestic capacity and credible regional public goods.
Open IndiaSeptember 11, 2026 · 5 min read
The instruments to move disaster money before a storm exist, and they work. Why they still cover a fraction of the risk — and why sending more money closes only half of a gap that local governments now carry alone.
September 11, 2026 · 5 min read
In 2023, under one per cent of humanitarian funding was committed ahead of the shocks it was meant to meet — even though about a fifth of need is predictable. The failure is rarely detection; it is the interval between a credible warning and financed action.
September 10, 2026 · 4 min read
Nepal's 2015 Constitution puts disaster management in local hands — and shares it across every tier. The finance stayed at the top. This brief maps the mandate against the money that reaches the local level, and sets out three financing options for the ministries that could close the gap.
July 6, 2026 · 22 min read
A policy brief on how regional and external actors can help create the conditions for a negotiated settlement in Myanmar. Its central argument is that the conflict is not yet 'ripe' for negotiation — the actors who would have to sign do not yet see a reason to. The immediate task is therefore not to table a peace plan but to shape the humanitarian, economic, diplomatic, and institutional conditions under which negotiation becomes the rational choice, while preparing the settlement architecture as the destination rather than the opening move.
A data score and an editorial judgment are different kinds of claim.
Observed Capacity Indicator
OCI · comparable public data
Built only from comparable public data. Every score names its source, its year and its comparison group.
Assessed Capacity Judgment
ACJ · editorial assessment
Evidence that can’t be reduced to a reliable public indicator — stated openly as judgment, with the reasoning linked.
The two are reported separately — never merged into a single score.
Read the full methodLocal governments are acquiring greater climate and disaster responsibilities without corresponding finance, data or institutional capability.
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