Asia-Pacific analysis is usually organized around alignment: who is moving toward whom. That captures the strategic surface and misses the mechanism through which competition reaches most people, which runs through ports, utilities, credit terms and procurement rules.

Hedging is normally measured through elite policy statements. The more consequential constraints are quieter — a provincial government, a port concession, a utility contract — and they narrow national choices well before anyone announces a realignment.

The dashboard's own reading is that the region is integrating economically while fragmenting strategically. Dense trade and pact networks prevent clean bloc formation; rising defence costs and weaker civic indicators make cooperation more brittle.